Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6d5…bd41 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 690d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-10%) realized −$4 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%12W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$119
14 days−$119
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$66
other 29% −$143
tech 6% −$8
economics 6% −$35
politics 2% +$13
finance 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -68.0% -71.1% 11% 11% -60.9%
≤30d 28 -61.0% -64.7% 14% 14% -56.9%
≤90d 28 -61.0% -64.7% 14% 14% -56.9%
all 48 -32.1% -38.5% 25% 23% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 23% -10.1%
10% -44.4% 23% -18.7%
15% -49.8% 21% -26.6%
20% -54.7% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$11 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

690d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses12 / 36
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)48 / 63
History coverage690d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $154 $71 −$83 (-54%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-27%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 39¢ 26¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $36 −$27 -75%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$49 +238%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$3 +143%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$7 +129%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $60 +$19 +32%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 03 $110 −$12 -11%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $100 −$1 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $20 +$113 +567%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? Nov 01 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Nov 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $20 +$27 +133%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $70 +$113 +162%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 30 $25 +$41 +163%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 04 $1 $0 +50%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $21 +$14 +66%
Kamala president by Friday? Oct 08 $1 −$1 -100%
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Oct 08 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 July meeting? Oct 08 $5 $0 +8%
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024? Oct 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 32¢ $51 3h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 39¢ $10 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 7¢ $10 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $20 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $20 24h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 44¢ $20 43h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $10 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $3 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 92¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 49¢ $9 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 21¢ $10 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $2 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 4¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $2 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $21 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.37 · official $169.80 (match) · 170 history records