Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6cf…d1ca other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
other 29% −$1
politics 21% −$1
tech 6% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 32 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage448d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $43 +$1 +3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $43 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 09 $19 $0 +1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
2025 May hottest on record? Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $19 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 30? May 30 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 28 $17 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 22 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Finland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 12 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 06 $20 −$1 -3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $5 $0 +8%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 03 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 30 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $34 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $9 5h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $5 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $3 13h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $0 13h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $3 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $18 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $45 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $45 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 31d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 31d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 31d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 31d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 31d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $43 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 32d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 32d
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records