Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6cd…e027 sports 981 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23,724 (-115%) realized −$23,698 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%361W / 616L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day66.5pace
Fees−$383est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,889
other 1% +$13
crypto 0% −$42
world 0% −$22
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -9.2% -17.9% 44% 42% -15.9%
≤30d 684 -10.5% -19.0% 38% 37% -18.1%
≤90d 977 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 36% -18.0%
all 977 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 36% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 36% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 34% -25.8%
15% -34.9% 32% -33.0%
20% -41.3% 29% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$14 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$23,698
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses361 / 616
Est. fees paid−$383
Open positions4
Markets (closed)977 / 981
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day66.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 977 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ 59¢ $21 $24 +$2 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ 31¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-39%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $93 −$18 -20%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $53 +$72 +136%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $20 −$3 -13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $218 +$18 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$7 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 17 $17 −$12 -72%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 17 $30 −$18 -59%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $61 +$27 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 +$13 +82%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $11 −$1 -11%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $8 −$2 -22%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $10 +$7 +71%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $26 +$23 +89%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$17 +436%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $16 +$14 +92%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $44 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $64 +$41 +64%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $26 +$14 +54%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$14 +92%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $35 +$15 +43%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +113%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +104%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $17 +$9 +54%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 +$44 +79%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $22 +$17 +77%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $60 +$19 +32%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $38 +$19 +49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 +$14 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 26¢ $36 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $125 23m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $12 34m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $10 34m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ $21 37m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $26 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $20 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $7 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 13¢ $5 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $35 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $11 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $38 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $10 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $53 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $10 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $8 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $236 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $33 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $29 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $6 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $5 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $16 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $218 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $26 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $22 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $5 7h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $69 8h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 48¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.64 · official $35.65 (match) · 3500 history records