Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe6cd…d3b2 sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,866 (+4%) realized +$1,869 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%25W / 46L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$729per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$1,092est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,525
7 days+$5,254
14 days+$819
30 days+$1,652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,039
other 3% −$1,335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +13.5% +2.7% 44% 44% +36.1%
≤30d 62 +0.3% -9.2% 37% 37% -5.3%
≤90d 71 -3.3% -12.5% 35% 35% -7.3%
all 71 -3.3% -12.5% 35% 35% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 35% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 35% -16.1%
15% -28.5% 34% -24.2%
20% -35.5% 32% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$1,038) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,232 vs −$654 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$1,869
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses25 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$1,092
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage38d
Avg bet$729
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 60¢ 58¢ $132 $129 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $668 −$653 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $2,081 +$5,608 +269%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $1,565 +$1,507 +96%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $74 +$63 +86%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $2,702 +$807 +30%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $451 −$450 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $714 +$1,284 +180%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $843 −$842 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $1,749 −$1,075 -61%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $592 +$1,408 +238%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $966 −$960 -99%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $136 +$131 +96%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $567 −$530 -93%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1,038 −$944 -91%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 07 $8 −$7 -97%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $215 −$215 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Mongolia Jun 06 $355 −$26 -7%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Japan vs Myanmar Jun 06 $1,445 −$1,440 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 05 $11 +$9 +83%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $703 −$700 -100%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $769 +$1,332 +173%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 05 $487 −$485 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 05 $1,105 −$1,102 -100%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $600 +$1,400 +233%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $1,716 −$1,715 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $1,275 +$360 +28%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 03 $1,073 −$1,053 -98%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $1,415 −$1,411 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman Jun 03 $1,374 +$616 +45%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Kuwait Jun 03 $896 −$875 -98%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 02 $2,061 −$2,061 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $2,263 −$2,250 -99%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $1,847 −$1,840 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $2,169 +$4,777 +220%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan Jun 01 $607 +$1,407 +232%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 01 $847 +$2,421 +286%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire May 31 $1,580 −$1,580 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $1,259 +$1,413 +112%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $540 +$960 +178%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh May 30 $516 +$516 +100%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Somerset May 29 $469 +$1,031 +220%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Yorkshire May 29 $280 −$279 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $357 −$337 -95%
Will the match end in a draw? May 28 $858 −$843 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $567 −$566 -100%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essex May 26 $602 −$588 -98%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex May 25 $630 −$629 -100%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 25 $571 −$569 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 58¢ $3 48m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 59¢ $57 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 59¢ $6 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 58¢ $6 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 61¢ $28 4h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 61¢ $8 4h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 61¢ $4 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 61¢ $3 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 61¢ $2 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 61¢ $15 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 6¢ $14 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 6¢ $64 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 6¢ $64 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 6¢ $163 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $0 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $0 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $363 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 89¢ $951 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 69¢ $6,738 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 9¢ $136 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 9¢ $4 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 9¢ $41 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 24¢ $401 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 24¢ $48 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 24¢ $4 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 24¢ $28 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 22¢ $22 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 22¢ $88 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 22¢ $0 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 22¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.85 · official $128.85 (match) · 737 history records