Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6c9…43d5 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$122 (-14%) realized −$121 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$51
14 days+$114
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$85
crypto 7% +$5
tech 6% $0
other 5% −$46
world 4% +$2
weather 1% $0
culture 1% +$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +46.6%
≤30d 4 +13.9% +3.1% 75% 75% +14.1%
≤90d 15 -10.2% -18.7% 73% 47% -24.1%
all 20 -12.6% -20.9% 75% 35% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 35% -23.2%
10% -28.5% 20% -30.5%
15% -35.4% 15% -37.2%
20% -41.7% 10% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$58 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage169d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 66¢ 66¢ $81 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $83 +$51 +62%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $106 +$63 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $55 +$19 +34%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $71 +$26 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $46 −$46 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $49 −$48 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 30 $10 +$2 +17%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 30 $11 +$2 +17%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Apr 30 $24 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 30 $65 +$5 +8%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $144 −$141 -98%
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $375 before 2026?? Jan 10 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $82 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 61¢ $83 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $106 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 74¢ $55 19d
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 64¢ $56 25d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY G2 73¢ $71 34d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $46 44d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 68¢ $49 48d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 34¢ $144 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? BUY No 92¢ $65 59d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $10 85d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $11 91d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 100¢ $12 98d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 85¢ $11 105d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 86¢ $10 109d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $24 124d
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 138d
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? BUY Yes $2 144d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 154d
Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 158d
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $375 before 2026?? BUY No 100¢ $19 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.88 · official $80.88 (match) · 36 history records