Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6c6…77b7 other 377 markets active 2h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,661 (+0%) realized +$1,648 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate89%332W / 43L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$1,929per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$6,764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$79
14 days+$161
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$1,479
world 4% +$1,546
politics 2% −$336
culture 1% −$1,001
economics 0% −$15
finance 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$37
tech 0% −$23
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.3% -8.3% 89% 17% -9.4%
≤30d 70 +0.5% -9.0% 91% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 163 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 2% -9.3%
all 375 -1.4% -10.8% 89% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 7% -9.3%
10% -19.3% 5% -18.0%
15% -27.1% 3% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$2,825) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$63 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$6,764
Realized+$1,648
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses332 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)375 / 377
History coverage576d
Avg bet$1,929
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,741 $6,755 +$14 (+0%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7,313 +$26 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $709 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $892 −$146 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6,778 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $126 +$73 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,488 +$11 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6,476 +$22 +0%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $275 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $8,771 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4,687 +$22 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3,889 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2,882 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $6,319 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $382 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6,291 +$27 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $6,667 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $5,708 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $998 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $937 +$11 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $994 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2,283 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $498 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $6,616 +$20 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $91 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $3,157 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $6,105 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $530 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,055 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,505 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5,426 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $289 −$10 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $367 −$7 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $802 +$9 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,046 +$98 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $1,901 +$6 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $11,457 +$13 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $3,682 +$18 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $10,604 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $103 −$5 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $418 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5,297 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $2,594 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $5,276 +$18 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5,109 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $602 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $83 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $199 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $87 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $248 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $84 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $292 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,768 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,764.06 · official $6,764.06 (match) · 2951 history records