Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6c5…f798 crypto 415 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$433 (+4%) realized +$433 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%396W / 19L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$11
14 days−$25
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$167
sports 19% +$240
other 11% +$11
finance 5% +$6
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -1.9% -11.2% 97% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 205 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 393 -3.0% -12.2% 95% 0% -17.5%
all 415 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 5% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -5.7%
10% -17.7% 4% -14.7%
15% -25.7% 3% -23.0%
20% -33.0% 3% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$42 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$433
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses396 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)415 / 415
History coverage234d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 415 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 13h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 96¢ $50 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $30 13h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $49 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $46 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 31h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 31h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.60 · official $0.00 (match) · 2117 history records