Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E6 0xe6c1…07a7 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$135 (+40%) realized +$137 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$122
other 50% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +37.3% +24.2% 50% 50% +0.3%
≤30d 2 +37.3% +24.2% 50% 50% +0.3%
≤90d 2 +37.3% +24.2% 50% 50% +0.3%
all 2 +37.3% +24.2% 50% 50% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.2% 50% +0.3%
10% +12.3% 50% -9.3%
15% +1.5% 50% -18.1%
20% -8.5% 50% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$95 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $168 −$95 -57%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $94 +$124 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $74 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $73 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $168 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $218 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $94 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.41 · official $68.41 (match) · 5 history records