Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E6 0xe6bf…16b9 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,772 (-5%) realized −$1,654 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$774per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,117
7 days−$762
14 days−$762
30 days−$762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$2,417
sports 9% +$1,311
politics 5% +$173
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +20.2% +8.7% 54% 49% -11.5%
≤30d 41 +20.2% +8.7% 54% 49% -11.5%
≤90d 46 +17.4% +6.2% 54% 48% -11.6%
all 46 +17.4% +6.2% 54% 48% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 48% -11.6%
10% -3.9% 37% -20.0%
15% -13.2% 33% -27.8%
20% -21.7% 26% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$805) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$359 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized−$1,654
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage61d
Avg bet$774
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $427 $308 −$118 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,026 +$1,285 +26%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $410 −$287 -70%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$284 +140%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,213 −$172 -14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,010 +$399 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $323 +$195 +60%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,004 +$146 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,517 −$211 -8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$174 +85%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,455 +$161 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 17 $1,655 +$239 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $805 +$88 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,997 +$264 +13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,855 −$448 -24%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $303 +$144 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $366 −$357 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$14 -5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,514 −$1,300 -86%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $111 +$51 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$207 -68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,409 −$2,463 -72%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$70 -69%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $204 +$510 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$91 -89%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $302 +$111 +37%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $342 +$80 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$197 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $505 +$276 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $206 +$569 +276%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $508 −$502 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $635 +$681 +107%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $56 +$194 +344%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $103 +$257 +250%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $208 +$344 +165%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? May 18 $160 −$48 -30%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $7 $0 +5%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $26 −$19 -73%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $22 +$4 +20%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $15 +$7 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $122 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,001 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,008 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $64 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $410 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,017 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 70¢ $977 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $1,009 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 22¢ $48 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 11h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $2,010 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $2,258 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,014 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $377 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $2,004 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $4,455 27h
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,892 27h
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $592 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $592 35h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1,405 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,406 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $805 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $447 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.03 · official $308.03 (match) · 147 history records