Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6bf…5cad crypto 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$599 (-44%) realized −$488 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%50W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$347
crypto 30% −$92
other 13% −$124
sports 3% +$9
finance 2% −$21
economics 1% −$10
culture 1% −$7
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 50% +60.6%
≤30d 36 -59.6% -63.4% 22% 22% -58.9%
≤90d 114 -32.9% -39.3% 32% 32% -41.9%
all 175 -39.5% -45.2% 29% 28% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.2% 28% -44.7%
10% -50.5% 27% -50.0%
15% -55.3% 25% -54.8%
20% -59.6% 22% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$488
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses50 / 125
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)175 / 183
History coverage398d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 4¢ 0¢ $124 $16 −$109 (-88%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $162 −$129 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 23 $4 +$5 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 23 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 23 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 21 $3 +$4 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 21 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 20 $5 +$7 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 20 $5 +$11 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 20 $4 +$2 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Türkiye to BUY 10¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye leading at halftime? AND Wil BUY 21¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY 1¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 2¢ $36 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $33 25d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 4¢ $26 27d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 4¢ $17 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.88 · official $63.88 · 414 history records