Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe6bb…c0aa sports 362 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,597 (-3%) realized −$11,891 · open +$294
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%218W / 143L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$976per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$3,480est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$278
7 days−$354
14 days+$728
30 days−$4,504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$13,250
other 1% +$798
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.4% -18.0% 59% 56% -10.2%
≤30d 151 -10.8% -19.3% 62% 54% -11.6%
≤90d 361 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 50% -12.6%
all 361 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 50% -12.6%
10% -25.9% 33% -21.0%
15% ← realistic here -33.0% 20% -28.6%
20% -39.6% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,255) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$511 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized−$11,891
Unrealized+$294
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses218 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$3,480
Open positions1
Markets (closed)361 / 362
History coverage73d
Avg bet$976
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 92¢ $529 $824 +$294 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $843 +$217 +26%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $2,481 +$360 +14%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $383 −$377 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $492 −$382 -78%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $615 −$120 -20%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $355 +$344 +97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $367 −$365 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $155 +$45 +29%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $499 +$161 +32%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $349 −$348 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $387 +$63 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $524 +$76 +14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $700 +$129 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,348 +$842 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,003 +$347 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,478 −$1,467 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,717 −$166 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $499 −$494 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $841 +$772 +92%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,727 +$271 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $969 −$969 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $649 −$438 -68%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,215 +$284 +23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,023 +$77 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$98 +32%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $617 +$383 +62%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $207 +$473 +228%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $703 +$157 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $319 −$159 -50%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $474 −$330 -70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $736 +$264 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $872 +$150 +17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1,900 +$1,197 +63%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,806 −$982 -35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $805 −$580 -72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,034 +$296 +29%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $730 +$270 +37%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $884 +$242 +27%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $218 −$217 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $769 +$74 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $457 −$360 -79%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $760 −$760 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $709 +$16 +2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1,437 −$375 -26%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $810 +$190 +24%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $997 +$227 +23%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,644 −$211 -13%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $410 +$140 +34%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,530 +$650 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $536 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $843 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $2,481 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $137 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $12 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $14 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $208 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $12 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 1¢ $2 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 11¢ $34 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 61¢ $95 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 61¢ $6 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $202 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 63¢ $254 17h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $123 17h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 68¢ $673 17h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $492 17h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $699 18h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ $42 18h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ $5 18h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ $35 18h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ $35 18h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ $249 18h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $355 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $155 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $499 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $349 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $103 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $387 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $524 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $823.50 · official $823.50 (match) · 1950 history records