Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6b3…f8c1 sports 505 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$276 (+3%) realized +$152 · open +$124
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%198W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$151
14 days−$151
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$452
economics 31% −$320
other 18% +$642
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +12.7% +1.9% 28% 22% -12.3%
≤30d 19 +19.9% +8.4% 32% 26% -9.5%
≤90d 473 -1.9% -11.2% 39% 27% -11.0%
all 504 -2.8% -12.1% 39% 28% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 28% -11.9%
10% -20.5% 19% -20.3%
15% -28.2% 13% -28.0%
20% -35.2% 8% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$524
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$124
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses198 / 306
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions1
Markets (closed)504 / 505
History coverage115d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 73¢ 96¢ $400 $524 +$124 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $203 −$176 -87%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $177 +$115 +65%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 −$28 -27%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 23 $2,925 −$680 -23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$132 +44%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 21 $67 −$39 -59%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $67 −$49 -73%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $67 −$56 -83%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 21 $73 +$505 +692%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 21 $94 −$76 -81%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $75 −$73 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$20 -78%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $37 −$1 -3%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $643 +$295 +46%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $102 +$152 +149%
Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? May 16 $10 +$27 +262%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 08 $10 −$1 -6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $6 $0 +6%
Gwangju: Hyeon Chung vs Clement Chidekh Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Gwangju: Alexis Galarneau vs August Holmgren Apr 23 $14 −$12 -86%
Savannah: Liam Draxl vs Kilian Feldbausch Apr 22 $12 −$11 -94%
Abidjan: Hamish Stewart vs Eliakim Coulibaly Apr 22 $27 $0 +2%
Abidjan: Younes Laaroussi vs Calvin Hemery Apr 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong Apr 22 $10 −$4 -35%
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana Apr 22 $21 −$3 -15%
Abidjan: Samir Hamza Reguig vs Oscar Weightman Apr 22 $22 −$10 -47%
Madrid Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Titouan Droguet Apr 22 $22 $0 -0%
Rome: Cezar Cretu vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Apr 22 $12 −$6 -47%
Savannah: Stefan Kozlov vs Nick Hardt Apr 22 $11 +$22 +191%
Rome: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Jacopo Vasami Apr 22 $22 −$11 -50%
Madrid Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Sebastian Ofner Apr 22 $21 +$4 +21%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 22 $12 −$5 -43%
Madrid Open: Alexandre Muller vs Jan-Lennard Struff Apr 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Madrid Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Mattia Bellucci Apr 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Madrid Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Vit Kopriva Apr 22 $20 +$6 +30%
Shymkent: Sandro Kopp vs Sergey Fomin Apr 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Shymkent: Radu Albot vs Antoine Ghibaudo Apr 22 $11 +$11 +105%
Rome: Laslo Djere vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Apr 21 $20 +$4 +18%
Savannah: Alex Rybakov vs Kilian Feldbausch Apr 21 $10 $0 +3%
Rome: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Jonas Forejtek Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Abidjan: Digvijaypratap Singh vs Mert Alkaya Apr 21 $9 +$2 +17%
Savannah: Michael Antonius vs Mitchell Krueger Apr 21 $10 −$2 -19%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Apr 21 $20 −$1 -3%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Jaime Faria vs Lloyd Harris Apr 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Shymkent: Max Wiskandt vs Mathys Erhard Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Shymkent: Bekkhan Atlangeriev vs Viktor Durasovic Apr 21 $13 −$7 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $403 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $190 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 47¢ $73 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 26¢ $0 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes $5 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 20¢ $96 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 78¢ $386 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes $5 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 20¢ $96 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 78¢ $386 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes $5 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 20¢ $96 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 78¢ $386 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes $1 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes $1 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 20¢ $38 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 78¢ $154 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $524.38 · official $524.38 (match) · 2214 history records