Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6a9…ce57 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$20 (-3%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate76%38W / 12L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$62
other 16% +$63
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -0.7% -10.1% 76% 38% -9.3%
≤30d 50 -0.7% -10.1% 76% 38% -9.3%
≤90d 50 -0.7% -10.1% 76% 38% -9.3%
all 50 -0.7% -10.1% 76% 38% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 38% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 20% -18.0%
15% -26.6% 12% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses38 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $48 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $44 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $70 +$57 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$5 -83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $27 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $9 +$8 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $38 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 2h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 39¢ $29 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.34 · official $83.34 (match) · 141 history records