Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6a7…1940 weather 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized +$142 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%31W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$147
sports 17% −$1
other 12% +$1
weather 4% $0
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -2.7% -12.0% 86% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$626
Realized+$142
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses31 / 5
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)36 / 45
History coverage104d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $275 $422 +$147 (+53%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $275 $128 −$147 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 9? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 30? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in May? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on May 28? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 27? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $544 +$5 +1%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 25 $622 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on May 15? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C or below on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 15? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 10? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 9? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on April 28? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ap May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 11°C or below on April 28 May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on April 28? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $460 +$1 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $752 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $511 −$6 -1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 10 $311 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $9 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 17d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 17d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 19d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 19d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 19d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 43¢ $236 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 56¢ $124 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 56¢ $12 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 56¢ $1 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 56¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $626.13 · official $626.06 (match) · 291 history records