Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6a6…3149 sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-19%) realized −$130 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$76
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$2
other 32% −$86
world 3% +$10
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -30.5% -37.1% 30% 30% -20.5%
≤30d 32 -34.8% -41.1% 28% 28% -21.3%
≤90d 32 -34.8% -41.1% 28% 28% -21.3%
all 32 -34.8% -41.1% 28% 28% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 28% -21.3%
10% -46.7% 25% -28.8%
15% -51.8% 25% -35.7%
20% -56.6% 19% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage8d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $41 +$37 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 +$20 +48%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$6 -57%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 +$23 +152%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +63%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +50%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $31 −$7 -22%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $32 −$9 -30%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $61 +$32 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 −$5 -82%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $60 +$9 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 14m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 98¢ $77 51m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 42¢ $61 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 51¢ $41 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 25h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 42h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 44h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 44h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 46h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $8 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $33 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $24 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.32 · official $27.32 (match) · 66 history records