Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6a4…c36e sports 146 markets active 7d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1600 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-9%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1600.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$124
other 5% −$15
world 5% −$6
tech 2% −$10
weather 1% −$3
culture 1% −$5
crypto 1% −$4
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1600 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.7% -11.1% 35% 22% -24.6%
≤30d 146 -19.6% -27.3% 17% 6% -20.2%
≤90d 146 -19.6% -27.3% 17% 6% -20.2%
all 146 -19.6% -27.3% 17% 6% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1600.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 6% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 4% -27.9%
15% -40.6% 4% -34.8%
20% -46.4% 1% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 121
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1600.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $57 −$15 -26%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $1 $0 -29%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $2 $0 -17%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $6 $0 -5%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 10 $7 −$2 -24%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $16 −$3 -20%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $3 +$1 +18%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $15 −$4 -26%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $6 −$2 -28%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $2 −$1 -54%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $8 −$1 -10%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $8 $0 -5%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $7 −$1 -17%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $2 +$1 +40%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $105 −$20 -19%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $55 −$8 -15%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $64 −$4 -6%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $11 +$2 +16%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $27 $0 -1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $18 −$3 -17%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $21 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $46 −$1 -1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $34 +$1 +4%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $28 −$1 -2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $25 +$13 +51%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $24 −$9 -38%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $46 −$6 -14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $14 −$1 -8%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $28 −$4 -14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $6 −$2 -38%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 −$1 -57%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $33 +$2 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $14 $0 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $31 −$1 -4%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $17 $0 -1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $9 −$2 -27%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -92%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $18 −$3 -17%
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Darwin Blanch 100¢ $0 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Darwin Blanch $0 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Darwin Blanch $0 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Darwin Blanch 91¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 11¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 16¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Darwin Blanch 88¢ $1 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik SELL Jan-Lennard Struff 33¢ $1 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 22¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 99¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 41¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $1 6d
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 46¢ $1 6d
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 63¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur SELL Daria Snigur 50¢ $0 6d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur SELL Daria Snigur 50¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 51¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur SELL Daria Snigur 51¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 69¢ $0 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Darwin Blanch 31¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 70¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Darwin Blanch 45¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Darwin Blanch 39¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Darwin Blanch 39¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Darwin Blanch 54¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Darwin Blanch 54¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 45¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 45¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 46¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur SELL Martin Damm 16¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2652 history records