Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe69c…7f9b sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$249 (-22%) realized −$247 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$229
14 days−$266
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$194
other 23% −$37
crypto 5% −$27
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -28.0% -34.9% 39% 28% -34.9%
≤30d 70 -27.4% -34.3% 44% 29% -32.8%
≤90d 70 -27.4% -34.3% 44% 29% -32.8%
all 70 -27.4% -34.3% 44% 29% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 29% -32.8%
10% -40.6% 23% -39.2%
15% -46.3% 13% -45.1%
20% -51.6% 9% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 39
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)70 / 77
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 63¢ 82¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-40%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$38 +141%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 14 $45 −$3 -6%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$20 -40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $20 −$13 -64%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $71 −$56 -79%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $20 −$12 -59%
ITF kiseljak: Sergi Perez Contri vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand Jun 12 $20 −$10 -49%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $30 −$9 -30%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -47%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Sofya Lansere vs Francesca Curmi Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
ITF Los Angeles: Tanishk Konduri vs Maxwell Exsted Jun 11 $20 −$12 -61%
ITF Wichita: Nicolas Arseneault vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Jun 11 $20 −$15 -73%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Alena Kovackova Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Cuiaba: Maria Herazo vs Camila Romero Jun 10 $25 +$10 +38%
ITF Vaasa: Jeri Lassila vs Linus Lagerbohm Jun 10 $20 +$7 +34%
ITF Vaasa: Filip Peliwo vs Kristjan Tamm Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $10 +$3 +27%
ITF Wichita: Philip Sekulic vs Blake Ellis Jun 10 $15 −$1 -5%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
ITF Los Angeles: Jack Satterfield vs Spencer Johnson Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Catarina Melleiro vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano Jun 09 $10 +$2 +20%
ITF Wichita: Justin Boulais vs Ozan Baris Jun 09 $15 −$13 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 52m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 53m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 53m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 53m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 54m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 54m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 55m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 55m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 25h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $8 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 31h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 63¢ $10 33h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 65¢ $10 33h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 88¢ $17 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 47h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 71¢ $15 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves SELL Carolina Alves 48¢ $9 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 68¢ $13 2d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 17¢ $5 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Carolina Alves 54¢ $10 2d
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma BUY Madison Brengle 66¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.95 · official $68.96 (match) · 152 history records