Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe695…a66a crypto 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate59%95W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$11
other 30% −$3
politics 13% −$3
sports 7% −$34
world 4% −$4
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -3.6% -12.8% 69% 8% -9.9%
≤90d 120 -5.4% -14.4% 58% 6% -9.7%
all 162 -5.3% -14.4% 59% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 7% -9.7%
10% -22.5% 6% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 5% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses95 / 67
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage117d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C or below on May 30? May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $78 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $78 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $99 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 29 $8 +$4 +52%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 29 $99 $0 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $121 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $121 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 27? May 28 $121 $0 +0%
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 27 $121 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $121 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $125 −$5 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $126 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $5 +$8 +165%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $117 $0 -0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $457.50 Week of May 18 2026? May 23 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 22 $117 $0 +0%
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 20 $117 $0 -0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Himeno Sak May 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 20 $121 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $120 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $120 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $8 +$7 +79%
Will Meta (META) finish week of May 11 above $570? May 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will Ons Jabeur win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 14 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 13 $122 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $122 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $269 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10? May 11 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? May 10 $122 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $122 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $122 $0 -0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $670 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $122 $0 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 7? May 08 $127 $0 +0%
Will Dayana Yastremska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will Daria Kasatkina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 07 $127 $0 -0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Magdalena Frech May 07 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $112 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $92 26d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 27d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $78 27d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $78 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 65¢ $8 27d
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi BUY No 100¢ $13 27d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 Week of May 25 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 28d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C or below on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $99 29d
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu BUY Maria Sakkari 65¢ $8 29d
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $121 29d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $121 29d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $121 29d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $121 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $121 30d
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 100¢ $121 30d
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 100¢ $121 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $121 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 96¢ $120 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 32d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 32d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 34d
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Washington Nationals 37¢ $5 34d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $117 34d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $117 34d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $457.50 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 100¢ $118 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 37d
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.94 · official $116.94 (match) · 323 history records