Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe695…538e weather 1365 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (175 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$203 (-2%) realized −$193 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%697W / 415L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day175.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days+$165
14 days+$556
30 days+$620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$984
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (175 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 564 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 55% -4.9%
≤30d 1112 +8.4% -1.9% 63% 62% -1.1%
≤90d 1112 +8.4% -1.9% 63% 62% -1.1%
all 1112 +8.4% -1.9% 63% 62% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 62% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 41% -10.5%
15% -19.9% 32% -19.2%
20% -27.7% 26% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$564
Realized−$193
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses697 / 415
Open positions90
Markets (closed)1112 / 1365
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day175.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 90 History 1112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? No 89¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? No 78¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? No 84¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? No 88¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? No 88¢ 96¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? No 87¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? No 90¢ 93¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 79¢ 92¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? No 62¢ 92¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 77¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? No 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 72¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? No 90¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? No 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? No 86¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? No 88¢ 80¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? No 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 82¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? No 88¢ 76¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 76¢ 76¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? No 65¢ 74¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? No 86¢ 73¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? No 73¢ 72¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 72¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+179%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 410 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 20? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 25? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 23? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 22? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 29? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 21? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 22? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 29? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 28? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 20? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -119%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 31? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 31? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 31? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 30? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 27? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 30? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 26? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 25? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 24? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 24? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 29? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 29? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 26? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 22? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 31? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 28? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 29? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 27? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 29? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.56 · official $562.04 (match) · 3500 history records