Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe694…0a08 crypto 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,892 (-30%) realized −$4,768 · open −$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%102W / 84L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$123
14 days+$130
30 days−$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$1,052
sports 33% −$3,937
other 11% +$491
world 3% +$1
politics 1% −$112
economics 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +64.7% +49.0% 80% 80% +14.1%
≤30d 10 +19.5% +8.1% 50% 50% -57.2%
≤90d 20 -8.6% -17.3% 25% 25% -57.2%
all 186 -8.0% -16.7% 55% 50% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 50% -36.6%
10% -24.7% 47% -42.7%
15% -32.0% 38% -48.2%
20% -38.6% 24% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$79 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$605
Realized−$4,768
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses102 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)186 / 189
History coverage592d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) Execration 38¢ 67¢ $314 $546 +$232 (+74%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Execration 63¢ 63¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) Yangon Galacticos 52¢ 0¢ $356 $0 −$356 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Jun 19 $4 +$10 +275%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $66 +$34 +52%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $212 +$53 +25%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $125 +$89 +71%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $64 −$64 -99%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $3 −$1 -26%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $5 +$10 +197%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $545 −$534 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $280 −$276 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 27 $702 −$702 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $41 −$7 -16%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $33 −$9 -28%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $205 −$87 -42%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $68 −$8 -12%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $293 −$144 -49%
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $471 −$52 -11%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 27 $1,081 −$1,081 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $1,102 −$21 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 17 $755 −$543 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 17 $50 +$40 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 17 $33 −$30 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 17 $20 +$20 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$8 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 17 $330 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 17 $192 +$98 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 17 $7 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 17 $4 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 17 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Execration 63¢ $60 1h
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) BUY Execration 39¢ $320 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Grind Back 100¢ $265 3h
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 15¢ $0 4h
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 15¢ $0 4h
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 15¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 80¢ $212 6h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $214 6h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $125 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $66 7h
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) BUY Yangon Galacticos 52¢ $361 7h
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 54¢ $2 7h
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 70¢ $64 6d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open SELL Game Master 40¢ $2 7d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open BUY Game Master 52¢ $3 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $5 11d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 54¢ $2 12d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $545 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $280 15d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $702 83d
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 83d
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 83d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $23 83d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $28 83d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $60 83d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $149 83d
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $418 83d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs BUY MOUZ 70¢ $1,081 83d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1,081 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.28 · official $605.28 (match) · 662 history records