Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe693…dd17 weather 300 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,031 (+10%) realized +$5,040 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%140W / 159L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$998
7 days−$1,803
14 days+$493
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% +$4,094
culture 3% +$2
other 2% −$1
politics 1% −$45
sports 1% +$3
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -24.0% -31.2% 49% 38% -34.5%
≤30d 91 -13.2% -21.5% 49% 40% -11.6%
≤90d 268 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 32% -4.2%
all 299 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 30% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 30% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 22% -11.8%
15% -36.4% 17% -20.3%
20% -42.6% 14% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$63 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$5,040
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses140 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)299 / 300
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$174
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? Yes 97¢ 78¢ $47 $38 −$9 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Czechia vs S Jun 18 $353 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 18 $282 +$182 +64%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $28 −$4 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 18 $1,183 −$1,183 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $62 +$8 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $12 +$8 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $8 +$16 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $85 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $51 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $179 −$179 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $432 +$152 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $117 −$70 -60%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $181 −$181 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $50 +$55 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 15 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $277 +$91 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $118 −$102 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $92 +$36 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $62 +$15 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $57 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $85 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $51 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $449 +$101 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 12 $348 −$348 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 12 $950 −$431 -45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $429 +$58 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $325 +$106 +32%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $186 +$28 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 11 $51 +$39 +78%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $51 −$35 -68%
Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 10 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $33 −$30 -92%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $2,091 +$260 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $885 +$1,760 +199%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $286 +$15 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Czechia vs S BUY Yes 100¢ $205 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Czechia vs S BUY Yes 98¢ $148 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 24¢ $9 27h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 25¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 74¢ $24 31h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $24 32h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $62 32h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 24¢ $24 32h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $23 33h
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 33h
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 33h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $28 34h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 54¢ $58 35h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 52¢ $190 35h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 36¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 36¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 40¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 40¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 64¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 64¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 58¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 58¢ $69 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 58¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 45¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 45¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 51¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 77¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.04 · official $38.04 (match) · 3500 history records