Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe68f…aa92 other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$21
politics 34% −$17
sports 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -3.3% -12.5% 2% 1% -9.7%
all 145 -1.4% -10.8% 11% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)145 / 148
History coverage122d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $307 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $380 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $263 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $313 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $544 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $292 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $317 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $251 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $239 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $248 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $251 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $271 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $311 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $233 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $277 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $281 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 4d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $30 4d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $44 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $44 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 7d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 15d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 16d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 16d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 16d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 17d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 19d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 19d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 20d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.92 · official $119.92 (match) · 403 history records