Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe68c…6d1a crypto 663 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-4%) realized −$80 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%301W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$16
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$67
other 5% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 47% -13.1%
≤30d 253 -0.9% -10.3% 49% 49% -9.6%
≤90d 661 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 46% -13.3%
all 661 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 46% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 46% -13.3%
10% -22.1% 45% -21.6%
15% -29.6% 45% -29.2%
20% -36.5% 45% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses301 / 360
Open positions2
Markets (closed)661 / 663
History coverage68d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Up 50¢ 96¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+93%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Up 50¢ 90¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 252 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +105%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +122%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +122%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +122%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +122%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +122%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 27h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 29h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.22 · official $23.22 (match) · 1222 history records