Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe68a…e6cf crypto 75 markets active 6d ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35 (-16%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%37W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -16.4% -24.3% 55% 50% -26.9%
≤30d 45 -19.4% -27.1% 53% 49% -27.9%
≤90d 71 -3.0% -12.3% 52% 49% -25.8%
all 75 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 47% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 47% -26.8%
10% -24.0% 40% -33.8%
15% -31.3% 31% -40.2%
20% -38.0% 24% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses37 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage160d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records