Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe688…02d4 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate95%52W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$41
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.8% -7.9% 92% 34% -13.5%
≤30d 55 +4.1% -5.8% 95% 31% -12.0%
≤90d 55 +4.1% -5.8% 95% 31% -12.0%
all 55 +4.1% -5.8% 95% 31% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 31% -12.0%
10% -14.8% 4% -20.4%
15% -23.0% 0% -28.1%
20% -30.6% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$40 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses52 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage10d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$5 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$4 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$6 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $41 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $37 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $41 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records