Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe685…d373 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$602 (+5%) realized +$606 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$576per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$63
14 days+$307
30 days+$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$851
other 43% −$463
politics 14% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -31.0% -37.6% 57% 29% -8.5%
≤30d 15 -23.1% -30.4% 60% 40% -5.8%
≤90d 18 -19.1% -26.8% 61% 44% -5.4%
all 18 -19.1% -26.8% 61% 44% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 44% -5.4%
10% -33.8% 22% -14.4%
15% -40.2% 17% -22.7%
20% -46.1% 6% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,005) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$176 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$606
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage53d
Avg bet$576
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $80 $73 −$7 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,605 +$282 +18%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,490 +$143 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,615 +$300 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 −$147 -73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,005 +$200 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$60 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $1,607 +$284 +18%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 05 $435 +$188 +43%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 05 $800 +$195 +24%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $400 −$260 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,887 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,605 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 6¢ $26 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,490 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,915 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $55 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,615 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,062 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 14d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 14d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $81 14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 14d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 14d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 14d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,607 25d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY Yes 69¢ $435 53d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 SELL Yes 29¢ $139 53d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 80¢ $400 53d
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 BUY Yes 80¢ $800 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.15 · official $276.15 (match) · 36 history records