Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe685…6633 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,733 (-4%) realized −$5,550 · open +$817
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,382per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$4,903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$506
14 days−$506
30 days−$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$504
other 20% +$476
crypto 20% −$5,433
economics 18% +$56
world 5% −$412
tech 1% +$51
sports 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +14.4% +3.5% 55% 18% -41.8%
≤30d 11 +14.4% +3.5% 55% 18% -41.8%
≤90d 16 -8.3% -17.1% 50% 12% -54.2%
all 48 +1.8% -7.9% 65% 19% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 19% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 17% -22.1%
15% -24.7% 12% -29.7%
20% -32.1% 10% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,162) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$484 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$4,903
Realized−$5,550
Unrealized+$817
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage400d
Avg bet$2,382
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 96¢ $3,671 $4,466 +$795 (+22%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $415 $438 +$22 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $93 +$7 +7%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$33 -44%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $447 −$446 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$88 +393%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $62 −$61 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $471 +$29 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +188%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $998 +$2 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 31? Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106,000 on November 3? Apr 01 $7,000 −$6,723 -96%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $4,790 +$210 +4%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 19 $358 −$358 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 1? Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Mar 04 $588 +$156 +27%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 19 $4,879 +$121 +2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 03 $105 −$21 -20%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $287 +$13 +4%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $487 +$20 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $3,168 +$132 +4%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $10,026 +$604 +6%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 14 $3,143 +$157 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? Nov 05 $20 −$8 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 2? Nov 02 $12 +$47 +392%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Nov 02 $9,960 +$50 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 1? Nov 02 $193 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 31? Nov 01 $1,162 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 31? Nov 01 $2,880 +$120 +4%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 31 $885 +$20 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Oct 30 $19 +$8 +42%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 30 $34,064 +$182 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $20,000 +$20 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? Oct 29 $716 +$35 +5%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 23 $479 +$121 +25%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 05 $30 +$22 +72%
WLFI >$13B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Aug 05 $621 −$22 -4%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Jul 30 $54 −$2 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 30 $32 −$1 -3%
Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 16 $70 +$10 +14%
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jul 01 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Jul 01 $934 +$60 +6%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 23 $181 +$119 +66%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 01 $4,995 +$313 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 44¢ $43 11h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $277 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $68 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $56 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 94¢ $471 6d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $79 9d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 10d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 10d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 10d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 10d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 10d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $50 10d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $998 50d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No $3 74d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the BUY Yes 99¢ $989 132d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the BUY Yes 98¢ $2,940 133d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 14¢ $84 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,903.40 · official $4,903.40 (match) · 255 history records