Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe683…8266 crypto 812 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,558 (-9%) realized −$2,558 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%334W / 478L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day60.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days−$82
14 days+$190
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,821
sports 1% +$390
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -3.0% -12.2% 47% 45% -10.5%
≤30d 218 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 45% -9.0%
≤90d 812 -12.2% -20.6% 41% 38% -17.4%
all 812 -12.2% -20.6% 41% 38% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 38% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 35% -25.3%
15% -35.1% 31% -32.5%
20% -41.5% 25% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$26 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,558
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses334 / 478
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)812 / 812
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 812 Trades
no open positions (234 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $161 −$153 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$16 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$178 +666%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$53 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$17 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $68 +$47 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$13 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$66 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$13 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$75 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $58 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$31 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$21 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$18 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $68 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $30 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $33 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $18 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $19 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records