Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe681…c0d3 crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%47W / 33L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$20
other 18% −$2
economics 14% −$1
politics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
world 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 23 +0.0% -9.5% 52% 0% -9.5%
all 80 -1.0% -10.4% 59% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses47 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage222d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 26? Jun 17 $116 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 20? May 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $116 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 28? May 20 $116 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $116 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? Apr 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 19? Apr 23 $116 $0 +0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 31? Apr 19 $116 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 28? Mar 31 $116 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 27 $215 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 18? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in March 2026? Mar 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 12? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 6? Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? Mar 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10? Mar 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination? Feb 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 6 Feb 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 3? Feb 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Feb 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 31 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 29? Jan 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 29 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 28 Jan 29 $100 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 24? Jan 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 23? Jan 24 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL No 100¢ $116 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $116 21d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 21d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $116 27d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $116 27d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $116 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $116 50d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 50d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 53d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $115 53d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $115 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 55d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $116 55d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $116 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $116 58d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $116 58d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $116 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $116 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $115 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $116 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $116 80d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 80d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $116 82d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $115 82d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $116 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.61 · official $115.49 (match) · 198 history records