Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe67f…eefd crypto 1047 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$208 (-3%) realized −$220 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate71%742W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$615
14 days−$614
30 days−$614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$212
weather 7% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -71.7% -74.4% 25% 4% -63.7%
≤30d 184 -70.5% -73.3% 26% 4% -63.5%
≤90d 966 -3.5% -12.7% 73% 48% -12.2%
all 1046 -3.9% -13.1% 71% 45% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 45% -12.6%
10% -21.4% 28% -21.0%
15% -29.0% 19% -28.6%
20% -36.0% 12% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$220
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses742 / 304
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1046 / 1047
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1046 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? No 89¢ 93¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? No 80¢ 91¢ $55 $63 +$8 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -3090%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $8 5m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $8 26m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $20 28m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $20 28m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $20 28m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $20 28m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $20 29m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $14 58m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $20 58m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $8 58m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $6 58m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $6 59m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $44 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $21 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $85 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $20 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.44 · official $167.29 (match) · 3500 history records