Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe67e…39b4 other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$5
politics 21% −$3
world 18% −$2
tech 14% −$1
culture 7% −$2
sports 7% −$2
economics 6% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$846) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage96d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $1,101 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 23 $1,035 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $1,018 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 22 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $846 −$1 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? May 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $842 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $847 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 19 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 18 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $822 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $811 −$1 -0%
Will The Weeknd have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 29 $176 $0 -0%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Mar 24 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on March 31? Mar 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r BUY No 100¢ $29 26m
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r BUY No 100¢ $10 43m
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 51m
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $725 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $285 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,012 1h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,003 18h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $67 19h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 19h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $959 19h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 19h
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $167 19h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 19h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $17 20h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 20h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 20h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,033 20h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? SELL No 99¢ $46 35h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 35h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 35h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 35h
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 36h
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $133 36h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY No 99¢ $24 36h
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $825 36h
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $225 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.92 · official $92.92 (match) · 113 history records