Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe67b…2328 crypto 59 markets active 17h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$490 (+14%) realized +$490 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 37L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$515
14 days+$515
30 days+$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% +$570
other 6% −$89
crypto 4% −$29
sports 1% −$18
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.4% -4.6% 67% 50% +11.2%
≤30d 6 +5.4% -4.6% 67% 50% +11.2%
≤90d 55 -41.9% -47.4% 33% 27% +1.5%
all 55 -41.9% -47.4% 33% 27% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.4% 27% +1.5%
10% -52.4% 25% -8.3%
15% -57.0% 20% -17.1%
20% -61.2% 15% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$5 · ×7.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 59
History coverage64d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $479 +$16 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $1,749 +$510 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 11 $101 −$9 -9%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 11 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 11 $993 +$44 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 29 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $2 +$1 +28%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Apr 28 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 20 $13 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 20 $6 +$8 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 20 $6 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 20 $6 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 44¢ $7 16h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $182 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 51¢ $20 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $20 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AN BUY $10 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $205 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 15¢ $113 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 19¢ $11 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $103 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 32¢ $117 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 26¢ $117 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 30¢ $144 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 20¢ $144 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $61 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 47¢ $103 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 48¢ $112 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 40¢ $6 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 31¢ $5 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 67¢ $283 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 63¢ $254 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 40¢ $268 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $7.00 · 141 history records