Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe679…9eb3 politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 23L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$15
politics 29% −$2
world 25% −$2
other 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.6% -2.7% 25% 25% -7.6%
≤30d 7 +4.0% -5.9% 14% 14% -8.6%
≤90d 7 +4.0% -5.9% 14% 14% -8.6%
all 24 -48.8% -53.7% 4% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.7% 4% -9.1%
10% -58.1% 4% -17.8%
15% -62.2% 0% -25.7%
20% -65.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$0 · ×63.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage601d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 28 $228 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 28 $229 $0 -0%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $52 +$16 +31%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 26 $212 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win North Dakota US Senate Electio Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Connecticut US Senate Election Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win New York US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win New Mexico US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Missouri US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Minnesota US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Wyoming US Senate Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Virginia US Senate Election? Nov 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election? Nov 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the Eastern Conference? Nov 04 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 04 $194 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Nov 04 $194 $0 -0%
Will rasmr be the biggest winner of The House Poker Night? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District be the tipping point jurisd Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 04 $194 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $33 1h
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $228 1h
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $228 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $229 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $229 5h
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $52 45h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $212 45h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $212 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $112 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $114 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $212 10d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $213 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $211 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $212 13d
Will a candidate from another party win North Dakota US Senate Electio BUY Yes $0 598d
Will a candidate from another party win Connecticut US Senate Election BUY Yes $0 598d
Will a candidate from another party win New York US Senate Election? BUY Yes $0 598d
Will a candidate from another party win New Mexico US Senate Election? BUY Yes $0 598d
Will a candidate from another party win Missouri US Senate Election? BUY Yes $0 598d
Will a candidate from another party win Minnesota US Senate Election? BUY Yes $0 599d
Will a candidate from another party win Wyoming US Senate Election? BUY Yes $0 599d
Will a candidate from another party win Virginia US Senate Election? BUY Yes $0 600d
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election? BUY Yes $0 600d
Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL No 100¢ $193 601d
Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 100¢ $193 601d
Will the Washington Wizards win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 100¢ $193 601d
Will the Washington Wizards win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 100¢ $193 601d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $193 601d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $194 601d
West Ham United wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $194 601d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.56 · official $32.56 (match) · 40 history records