trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 0% | 0% | -10.6% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -5.1% | -14.2% | 20% | 0% | -15.8% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -7.8% | -16.6% | 38% | 8% | -11.8% |
| all | 22 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 55% | 14% | -7.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.2% | 14% | -7.1% |
| 10% | -15.2% | 5% | -16.0% |
| 15% | -23.4% | 5% | -24.1% |
| 20% | -30.9% | 5% | -31.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $1,620 | $1,632 | +$12 (+1%) |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? | Yes | 10¢ | 2¢ | $38 | $8 | −$30 (-80%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $1,627 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $1,664 | −$40 | -2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? | May 31 | $284 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | May 31 | $1,417 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 28 | $1,845 | −$435 | -24% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | May 18 | $1,304 | +$273 | +21% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 12 | $274 | +$10 | +4% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el | May 02 | $247 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | May 01 | $245 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? | Mar 26 | $75 | −$75 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Mar 25 | $713 | −$24 | -3% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 20 | $614 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? | Mar 19 | $596 | +$12 | +2% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Mar 19 | $3,480 | $0 | +0% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa | Mar 16 | $5,739 | +$660 | +12% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $221 | +$345 | +156% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? | Feb 02 | $1,891 | +$38 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Feb 01 | $2,504 | +$80 | +3% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 01 | $23 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Jan 26 | $2,693 | +$87 | +3% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 23 | $5,197 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Jan 19 | $9,399 | +$176 | +2% |