Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe676…5c84 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$383 (+34%) realized +$333 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$187
other 34% +$4
weather 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+59.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +76.5% +59.7% 43% 39% +0.0%
≤30d 23 +76.5% +59.7% 43% 39% +0.0%
≤90d 23 +76.5% +59.7% 43% 39% +0.0%
all 23 +76.5% +59.7% 43% 39% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.7% 39% +0.0%
10% +44.4% 30% -9.5%
15% +30.5% 30% -18.3%
20% +17.7% 26% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +180% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$26 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$333
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET Up 10¢ 12¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 47¢ 84¢ $40 $72 +$32 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $211 −$200 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $64 −$37 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $117 +$52 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Jun 25 $106 +$334 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $15 −$10 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $60 +$11 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $6 −$5 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $41 +$44 +106%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $76 +$14 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $13 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $13 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $211 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $37 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $116 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $117 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $95 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $440 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 21h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 33h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $44 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 39h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 39h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 42h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 44h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 44h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.06 · official $190.06 (match) · 66 history records