Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E6 0xe674…6aa6 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,522 (-15%) realized −$1,522 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate40%8W / 12L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$436per market

Trades / day8.9pace

Fees−$110est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-4.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+6.0%	-4.1%	40%	25%	-13.6%
≤30d	20	+6.0%	-4.1%	40%	25%	-13.6%
≤90d	20	+6.0%	-4.1%	40%	25%	-13.6%
all	20	+6.0%	-4.1%	40%	25%	-13.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.1%	25%	-13.6%
10%	-13.3%	20%	-21.9%
15%	-21.6%	10%	-29.4%
20%	-29.3%	10%	-36.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

38% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$933) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +32% → late -20% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$317 vs −$248 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.85 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,522

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses8 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Est. fees paid−$110

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage5d

Avg bet$436

Trades / day8.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	Jun 24	$151	+$10	+7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$945	+$214	+23%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$82	−$82	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND Wil	Jun 22	$509	−$304	-60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$222	−$19	-8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$504	+$122	+24%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND	Jun 21	$103	+$11	+11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$933	+$12	+1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	Jun 21	$304	+$14	+5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 21	$20	−$8	-41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$103	+$522	+510%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$202	−$108	-53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1,313	−$563	-43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$1,317	−$432	-33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$304	−$300	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$511	+$1,628	+318%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 20	$308	−$300	-97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$103	−$100	-97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 19	$1,777	−$706	-40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	SELL No	90¢	$161	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	BUY	6¢	$103	2h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	BUY No	84¢	$151	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	81¢	$1,158	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$945	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND Wil	SELL	17¢	$205	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND Wil	BUY	40¢	$509	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	59¢	$203	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$222	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	88¢	$626	3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$82	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$504	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN	BUY	16¢	$103	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND	SELL	15¢	$114	3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$83	3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$120	3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	83¢	$101	3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	50¢	$197	3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	50¢	$203	3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL FURIA	24¢	$12	3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY FURIA	39¢	$20	3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$51	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	16¢	$103	4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	12¢	$51	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	13¢	$103	4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	60¢	$862	4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$883	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL	29¢	$95	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	39¢	$750	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $100.00 · 50 history records