Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe66f…c394 crypto 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$38 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%169W / 16L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$7
14 days+$12
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$56
sports 0% −$32
other 0% +$2
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 36 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 111 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 185 -2.7% -12.0% 91% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -9.5%
10% -20.4% 4% -18.1%
15% -28.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$545) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$582
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses169 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)185 / 187
History coverage296d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $576 $573 −$3 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 95¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $348 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $227 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 17? Jun 18 $348 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $573 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $571 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $568 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $568 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 8? Jun 08 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $566 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 06 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $564 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $563 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 2? Jun 02 $514 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? Jun 01 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? May 30 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 29? May 29 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? May 26 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 24? May 24 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 23? May 23 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $556 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 20? May 21 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 20? May 20 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $410 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 18? May 18 $553 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 18 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 17? May 17 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? May 15 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 14? May 14 $551 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 13? May 14 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 13 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 12? May 12 $385 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 12? May 12 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 10? May 11 $547 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 9? May 09 $546 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 08 $546 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $576 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $348 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $227 25h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $348 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $573 38h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $572 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $571 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $570 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $570 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $569 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $569 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $568 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $568 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $567 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $567 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $566 12d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $566 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $564 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $564 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $563 14d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $563 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $562 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $48 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $514 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $561 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $560 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $560 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $559 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $559 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $558 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.36 · official $582.36 (match) · 455 history records