Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe66f…bfb8 other 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 737d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,667 (+12%) realized +$4,665 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate71%111W / 46L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$7,013
other 31% −$2,462
world 6% +$59
crypto 4% +$54
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.6% +4.6% 100% 20% +14.6%
≤30d 6 +13.0% +2.3% 100% 17% -4.7%
≤90d 13 +8.7% -1.7% 85% 38% -10.1%
all 157 -4.4% -13.5% 71% 26% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 26% +1.7%
10% -21.8% 16% -8.0%
15% -29.3% 13% -16.9%
20% -36.3% 12% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$138 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

737d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$4,665
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses111 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage737d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+8%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 21 $18 +$13 +73%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 29 $204 $0 +0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 29 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 29 $25 +$21 +83%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 29 $134 +$10 +7%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Apr 19 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 26 $19 +$12 +64%
Suns vs. Kings Mar 04 $686 +$205 +30%
Rockets vs. Wizards Mar 03 $940 +$104 +11%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Mar 02 $80 −$80 -100%
Men's Round of 16 - Germany vs. France Mar 02 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 2? Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 01 $2,000 +$68 +3%
Suns vs. Thunder Nov 29 $2,999 +$371 +12%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $2,559 −$2,559 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Nov 25 $563 +$1,996 +354%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Nov 23 $328 −$328 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 23? Nov 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 22 $918 +$2 +0%
Will Lithuania win on 2025-11-17? Nov 18 $899 +$19 +2%
Will Belarus win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-11-15? Nov 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Jets vs. Patriots Nov 14 $5,653 +$925 +16%
Steelers vs. Chargers Nov 10 $620 +$413 +67%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $37 +$27 +72%
Nets vs. Knicks Nov 10 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Brentford win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $279 −$279 -100%
Pacers vs. Nuggets Nov 09 $4,382 +$962 +22%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? Nov 09 $100 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 8? Nov 09 $1,462 +$61 +4%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 08 $3,000 +$15 +0%
Jaguars vs. Texans Nov 07 $525 −$525 -100%
Will Austria win on 2025-10-12? Oct 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Newcastle United win on 2025-10-01? Oct 10 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01? Oct 10 $1 +$3 +335%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will Pope Leo visit Peru first? Oct 01 $1 $0 +11%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 01 $11 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 23d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 97¢ $5 23d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 23d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $55 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $204 52d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 93¢ $134 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 63d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 63d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Suns 12¢ $56 63d
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $17 87d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 87d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $19 109d
Suns vs. Kings BUY Suns 77¢ $686 110d
Rockets vs. Wizards BUY Rockets 90¢ $940 111d
Nuggets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 16¢ $80 111d
Men's Round of 16 - Germany vs. France BUY Germany 87¢ $17 124d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 18? BUY No $1 154d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 2? BUY Yes $1 201d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $2,068 201d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 89¢ $2,999 206d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? BUY No 57¢ $559 208d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? BUY No 57¢ $2,000 208d
Timberwolves vs. Kings BUY Kings 22¢ $563 209d
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder BUY Trail Blazers 10¢ $328 210d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 23? BUY Yes $3 210d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 88¢ $2,000 210d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 211d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.27 · official $118.13 (match) · 317 history records