Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe66a…6cff crypto 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (337 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$19,783 (+33%) realized +$19,788 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%76W / 498L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day337.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$21,196
other 3% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (337 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-74.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 557 -79.3% -81.3% 11% 11% -67.9%
≤30d 574 -72.2% -74.9% 13% 13% -66.2%
≤90d 574 -72.2% -74.9% 13% 13% -66.2%
all 574 -72.2% -74.9% 13% 13% -66.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover337.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -74.9% 13% -66.2%
10% ← realistic here -77.3% 13% -69.4%
15% -79.5% 13% -72.4%
20% -81.5% 13% -75.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -44% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
24.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$370 vs −$261 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$19,788
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses76 / 498
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)574 / 138
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$438
Trades / day337.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 574 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $111 $113 +$2 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $108 $101 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $969 −$969 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $484 −$484 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $499 −$499 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $200 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $57 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $27 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $22 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $122 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $43 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.94 · official $213.94 (match) · 3500 history records