Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe666…f65b other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$20
politics 33% −$14
sports 12% +$11
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 104 -2.4% -11.7% 3% 3% -9.7%
all 111 -0.6% -10.0% 5% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×12.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage114d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $227 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $241 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $322 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $269 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $95 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 03 $225 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $308 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $244 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $574 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $230 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $235 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 30 $307 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $259 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $286 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $315 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $283 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $283 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $491 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $313 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $321 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $231 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $305 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $307 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $237 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 24d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 29d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $280 31d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $280 33d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $259 33d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $259 36d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $251 37d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $251 42d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $241 43d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $241 43d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $228 43d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $228 43d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $231 44d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $231 45d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $322 45d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $322 45d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $271 45d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $271 46d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $322 46d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $322 46d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $269 46d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $269 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records