Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe665…79bb sports 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,847 (-11%) realized −$1,846 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%118W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$163
14 days+$46
30 days−$579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,356
other 7% −$489
crypto 1% +$96
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +24.3% +12.4% 74% 74% +16.0%
≤30d 51 -7.4% -16.3% 53% 53% -31.6%
≤90d 145 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 51% -14.6%
all 247 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 48% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 48% -19.4%
10% -27.0% 46% -27.1%
15% -34.0% 42% -34.1%
20% -40.5% 37% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$57 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$1,846
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses118 / 129
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions5
Markets (closed)247 / 261
History coverage210d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Over 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 67¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $25 +$8 +31%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$12 +47%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$7 +28%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$12 +114%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $25 +$11 +42%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$47 +93%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 AND Will F Jun 23 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 +$34 +67%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 +$9 +36%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$42 +82%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 202 Jun 20 $25 +$15 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$17 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$44 +172%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $26 +$93 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $50 +$11 +21%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 +$34 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$15 +31%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$16 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 30 $51 +$34 +67%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $204 −$204 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 27 $51 +$40 +79%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 27 $51 +$36 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 32m
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $25 32m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States BUY 32¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 28¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-2 BUY 56¢ $51 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $25 23h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea BUY 52¢ $25 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 77¢ $25 23h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 67¢ $25 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 AND Will F BUY 66¢ $51 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 54¢ $51 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-2 BUY 77¢ $25 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 202 BUY 62¢ $25 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 58¢ $25 5d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $51 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Ge BUY 49¢ $102 5d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY 59¢ $25 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score AND Will Morocco win on 2026 BUY 26¢ $26 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to BUY 10¢ $51 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 36¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.96 · official $274.96 · 543 history records