Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe661…e2ee other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$161 (+4%) realized +$251 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$37
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$121
politics 20% −$192
finance 7% +$92
world 6% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.4% -5.5% 75% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 6 +11.6% +0.9% 83% 33% -1.8%
≤90d 8 +14.4% +3.5% 88% 50% -0.2%
all 17 +3.9% -6.0% 82% 41% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 41% -6.2%
10% -15.0% 24% -15.2%
15% -23.2% 0% -23.4%
20% -30.7% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$90 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized+$251
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage159d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $257 $171 −$87 (-34%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $142 $139 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $430 −$16 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $397 +$33 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $265 +$10 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $112 +$10 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$64 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $168 +$33 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $152 +$16 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $112 +$39 +35%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Feb 02 $112 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 01 $551 −$223 -40%
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January? Jan 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ryanair say "Holiday" during earnings call? Jan 26 $273 +$92 +34%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 25 $213 +$61 +29%
Will France join the Board of Peace? Jan 24 $203 +$9 +5%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 23 $191 +$12 +6%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $122 +$16 +13%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 15 $115 +$7 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $95 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $77 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $27 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $53 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $56 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $414 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $428 26h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $397 31h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $122 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $112 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $265 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $200 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $200 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $168 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $152 66d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $112 67d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $112 141d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $112 141d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? SELL Yes 36¢ $112 142d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY Yes 70¢ $216 142d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? SELL No 47¢ $216 142d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY No 72¢ $335 143d
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January? BUY No 25¢ $30 146d
Will Ryanair say "Holiday" during earnings call? BUY Yes 75¢ $273 149d
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? SELL No 99¢ $273 149d
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? BUY No 77¢ $213 149d
Will France join the Board of Peace? SELL No 93¢ $213 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.13 · official $309.13 (match) · 44 history records