trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 14¢ | 14¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $40 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 10 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Sep 08 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? | Aug 16 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 16 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Aug 15 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? | Aug 15 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 15 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Aug 15 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Aug 15 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Aug 15 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Aug 14 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? | Aug 14 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 14 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Aug 14 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Aug 13 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on August 11 at 5PM ET? | Aug 13 | $50 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Aug 12 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | Aug 12 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Aug 11 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on Aug | Aug 11 | $2 | −$1 | -75% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 11 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Aug 11 | $3 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will Trump be impeached in 2025? | Aug 11 | $6 | −$1 | -16% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? | Aug 10 | $55 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 0% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 0% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 0% | 0% | -10.2% |
| all | 26 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 27% | 4% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 4% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 4% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 0% | -33.5% |