Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe65f…d11d crypto 1784 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate79%1412W / 386L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day74.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$26
14 days−$11
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$34
weather 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -10.7% -19.2% 77% 59% -19.1%
≤30d 1394 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 66% -10.5%
≤90d 1798 -2.1% -11.4% 79% 65% -11.3%
all 1798 -2.1% -11.4% 79% 65% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 65% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 28% -19.8%
15% -27.6% 1% -27.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1412 / 386
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1798 / 1784
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day74.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1798 Trades
no open positions (153 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -109%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -118%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on April 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -104%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records