Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe65f…9352 other 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$413 (-15%) realized −$299 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$62
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$144
other 31% −$57
politics 19% −$174
tech 8% −$42
sports 1% −$8
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -18.0% -25.8% 27% 23% -18.0%
≤30d 44 -16.6% -24.5% 23% 20% -18.9%
≤90d 48 -17.9% -25.7% 23% 21% -24.1%
all 48 -17.9% -25.7% 23% 21% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 21% -24.1%
10% -32.8% 19% -31.3%
15% -39.3% 12% -38.0%
20% -45.3% 8% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions37
Markets (closed)48 / 85
History coverage61d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $63 $72 +$9 (+15%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 44¢ 31¢ $89 $62 −$27 (-30%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-32%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-8%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 37¢ 10¢ $45 $11 −$34 (-75%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 70¢ 74¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-43%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 22¢ 31¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 25 $8 +$4 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $43 −$4 -10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 21 $12 +$8 +65%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $83 +$26 +31%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $139 −$21 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $73 −$4 -5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $78 −$6 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +68%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 19 $9 −$5 -54%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 19 $43 −$5 -13%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $80 −$29 -36%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 18 $37 −$14 -37%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $134 −$61 -46%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $166 −$33 -20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $38 +$43 +110%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -27%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 16 $162 +$47 +29%
Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting Apr 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? Apr 26 $300 −$168 -56%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Apr 26 $117 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 19m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL No 13¢ $6 23m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL No 24¢ $12 24m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 29m
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 52m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 53m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $9 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 66¢ $25 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $18 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $24 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 15¢ $8 6h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.74 · official $516.80 (match) · 304 history records