Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe65e…b719 crypto 1136 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$643 (+2%) realized +$643 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%563W / 575L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,482
7 days+$2,472
14 days+$2,472
30 days+$2,457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,524
other 13% +$2,832
sports 2% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -8.2% -17.0% 76% 46% +32.9%
≤30d 155 -9.7% -18.3% 68% 52% +31.5%
≤90d 1138 -6.8% -15.7% 49% 43% -6.3%
all 1138 -6.8% -15.7% 49% 43% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 43% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 38% -15.3%
15% -31.1% 32% -23.5%
20% -37.9% 26% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$643
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses563 / 575
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1138 / 1136
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1138 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$74 -148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $215 −$227 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $766 +$334 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $275 +$225 +82%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,507 +$2,548 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $7 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $43 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $34 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $186 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $275 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $220 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $487 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $487 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $178 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $766 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $674 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $660 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $57 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $670 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $47 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 39h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records