Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E6 0xe65b…271b sports 538 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,259 (+1%) realized +$3,609 · open −$350
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%274W / 242L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$1,722est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,842now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$287
7 days+$2,063
14 days+$1,611
30 days+$3,890
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$75
world 13% +$926
other 5% −$1,025
politics 3% +$1,674
finance 2% +$1,425
crypto 1% −$1,099
tech 1% +$157
economics 0% +$150
culture 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +32.1% +19.5% 69% 65% +6.9%
≤30d 132 +4.2% -5.7% 57% 53% -2.0%
≤90d 504 -5.3% -14.3% 53% 49% -8.8%
all 516 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 50% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 50% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 42% -17.3%
15% -29.3% 38% -25.3%
20% -36.2% 33% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$210 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$2,842
Realized+$3,609
Unrealized−$350
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses274 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,722
Open positions22
Markets (closed)516 / 538
History coverage98d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $400 $515 +$115 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 42¢ $590 $420 −$170 (-29%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 22¢ 19¢ $311 $266 −$45 (-14%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 44¢ 24¢ $440 $235 −$205 (-47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $279 $220 −$58 (-21%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 36¢ $150 $178 +$28 (+18%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $175 +$25 (+17%)
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $119 $175 +$56 (+47%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $140 $141 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $122 −$2 (-2%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $70 $92 +$22 (+31%)
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes $83 $84 +$1 (+2%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $100 $73 −$28 (-28%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 65¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Minnesota Lynx 50¢ 33¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.90% (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 57¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+104%)
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $4 $8 +$4 (+114%)
Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? No 35¢ $35 $8 −$28 (-79%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes $50 $6 −$44 (-89%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Washington Mystics win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes $19 $4 −$14 (-76%)
Will Azzi Fudd win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 20 $120 +$80 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $95 +$82 +86%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 18 $420 +$125 +30%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 16 $192 +$208 +108%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $96 +$104 +108%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,511 −$380 -25%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $645 +$90 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $54 +$196 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $508 +$492 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1,033 +$202 +20%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $115 −$114 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $199 +$301 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,561 +$439 +17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,452 +$16 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $116 +$187 +162%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $395 +$70 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $164 +$32 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $151 −$150 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 −$196 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $235 −$120 -51%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $299 −$12 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $535 +$465 +87%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $151 +$54 +36%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2,147 −$487 -23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $78 +$122 +156%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $49 +$51 +104%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,285 +$194 +15%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $56 −$55 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $100 +$100 +100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,620 −$30 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $230 +$150 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $101 −$78 -77%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5) Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $1,580 +$408 +26%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $123 +$77 +63%
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) Jun 07 $100 +$100 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $64 +$36 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $710 −$700 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $56 +$44 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $149 −$146 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $50 +$50 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $45 −$11 -25%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 50¢ $26 41m
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 50¢ $6 41m
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 50¢ $19 41m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 54m
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 55m
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 55m
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 55m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $177 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $64 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 1h
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 2h
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Washington Mystics 60¢ $120 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $95 2h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $291 29h
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,842.18 · official $2,842.29 (match) · 2247 history records