Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe65b…339f crypto 292 markets active 2d ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-5%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%148W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day97.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$13
14 days+$5
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$146
sports 11% −$1
world 2% −$4
politics 2% −$6
tech 1% $0
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -7.7% -16.5% 44% 18% -19.6%
≤30d 291 +3.5% -6.4% 51% 36% -16.3%
≤90d 291 +3.5% -6.4% 51% 36% -16.3%
all 291 +3.5% -6.4% 51% 36% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 36% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 28% -24.3%
15% -23.5% 21% -31.6%
20% -31.0% 15% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses148 / 143
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)291 / 292
History coverage24d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day97.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Repre Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Will Jacinda Ardern be the next Secretary General of the United Nation Jun 15 $3 −$3 -82%
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $1 $0 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -37%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Gree Jun 15 $1 $0 -28%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 -24%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +13%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $1 +$1 +60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 07 $1 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? SELL No 69¢ $1 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Repre SELL Yes 56¢ $1 2d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Jacinda Ardern be the next Secretary General of the United Nation SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL No 73¢ $1 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? SELL No 77¢ $1 2d
Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $3 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 2¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $0 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 52¢ $3 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 71¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the SELL No 57¢ $2 2d
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Gree SELL No 68¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2585 history records