Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe652…6740 crypto 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$267 (-8%) realized −$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate58%60W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$14
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$262
sports 5% +$23
other 3% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.6% -15.5% 80% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 14 -18.6% -26.3% 71% 0% -16.4%
≤90d 104 -19.4% -27.0% 58% 26% -16.7%
all 104 -19.4% -27.0% 58% 26% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 26% -16.7%
10% -34.0% 14% -24.7%
15% -40.4% 8% -32.0%
20% -46.2% 6% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses60 / 44
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage78d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $65 +$5 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $64 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 12 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 11 $10 −$7 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 11 $15 −$6 -38%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 11 $11 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 11 $10 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 11 $4 +$6 +150%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 11 $10 −$9 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 11 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 11 $8 −$7 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 11 $35 −$34 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 11 $35 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 11 $30 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 11 $35 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 11 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $65 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 13d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 94¢ $4 13d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 93¢ $4 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 43d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records