Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E6
0xe651…ab66
crypto · 23 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$57 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$56 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$17
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage116d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 8 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 47¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 12¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 18¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 42¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 40¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on February 25? Yes $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$12 +111%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 26 $1 +$2 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 26 $3 +$8 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 25 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on February 25? Feb 25 $40 +$22 +56%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on February 25? Feb 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $32 −$14 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$93
tech 22% +$14
other 16% +$23
world 0% $0
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 2h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $22 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $11 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $46 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up $2 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 107d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on February 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 107d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on February 25? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 107d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on February 25? BUY Yes $3 107d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on February 25? BUY Yes $0 107d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on February 25? BUY Yes $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $17 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? SELL No 100¢ $17 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +42.7% +29.1% 67% 67% +83.3%
≤30d 3 +42.7% +29.1% 67% 67% +83.3%
≤90d 3 +42.7% +29.1% 67% 67% +83.3%
all 15 -10.5% -19.0% 33% 33% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 33% -35.3%
10% -26.8% 33% -41.5%
15% -33.9% 33% -47.2%
20% -40.3% 33% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.75 · official $16.65 (match) · 34 history records